"I did it!"
I have 6 SEC teams in my top 10. SIX. That is crazy. But that’s what my numbers tell me are the teams that deserve to be at the top of the ratings, and it’s because of their conference strength of schedule. They play tough teams week in and week out, and the numbers bear that. However, only 2 non-conference champs can make the 8-team playoff, and one of them is likely to be Notre Dame, so, let’s look at who’s coming out of the SEC:
100 is NOT a perfect score, but Notre Dame is looking good. Biggest gainers: A&M, Stanford. Biggest droppers: Louisville, Alabama. But Bama still stayed up there in the ratings, as they had a high score to begin with.
- Florida (2) could make it as an at-large if they win their last two games AND Georgia wins the SEC title game. If Alabama wins the SEC, they’ll pass Florida. Seems fair to me.
- Alabama (4) will make it if they win out. Also seems fair.
- Georgia (7) is in the SEC Title game. If they win, they are in, even though Florida may be better. Seems fair, since Florida had a chance to beat Alabama
- A&M (8) will make it if Alabama loses to Auburn, A&M beats Missouri, and LSU loses to either Ole Miss or Arkansas. And then A&M wins the SEC title game.
- Sorry, South Carolina (9).
- LSU (10) will make it if Alabama loses to Auburn and LSU wins out, including the SEC title game.
As for other top teams that control their own path:
- Notre Dame (1) will make it if they win their last two games.
- Kansas State (3) will make it if they win their last two games.
- Oregon (5) or Stanford (11) will make it if they win their last two games and the Pac 12 title game.
- Ohio State (6), eligible here, has to beat Wisconsin and win the Big 10 title game.
- Nebraska (13) can make it if they win out, including the Big 10 title game.
- Florida State (15) will make it if they beat Maryland and win the ACC title game.
- UCLA (16) will make it if they beat USC and Stanford, and then win the Pac 12 title game.
Here’s where it gets interesting. My system rewards conference champions by selecting the top 6 champs, according to the ratings. For simplicity’s sake, let’s look at the top teams in each conference. Right now, they are Florida (2), Kansas State (3), Ohio State (6), Stanford (11), Clemson/Florida St (14/15), and Louisville (19). Let’s look at Louisville for a second. If they win out, they will be ranked around 15 or 16 at the end of the season. I don’t have an issue with one team outside the top 15 making this playoff; again, there should be a reward for winning your conference, and I don’t think Texas (17) fans are thinking: “we deserve this!” But let’s say Rutgers beats Louisville. And let’s say Kent State (20) wins out. We could have Kent State–a conference champion who went 12-1 and beat Rutgers–playing Notre Dame or Alabama in the first round. That is, frankly, awesome. You would have a Cinderella team in college football, but one who has earned it through quality play over the course of the entire season. And they wouldn’t be relegated to some random bowl, either. They would be playing for the chance to get into the national semifinals.
So if we look at Cinderellas: Kent State, Louisiana Tech, Northern Illinois, Toledo, and even San José State are still technically alive. We’re talking about a 1 in 5000 chance of even making it, but they are still alive. And that’s what makes sports fun for fans.