Two notes about this college football rating system:
1. AccuDrew is designed as a reward-based system: did you win, did you lose, and who did you beat? This system is not designed to predict who will win a hypothetical game between two teams or to rank teams by strength. Think about it: if college rating systems were designed to tell us who would beat who, then what happens if a star player gets injured during practice, or the coach is involved in a motorcycle accident? Should we then move a team up or down based on those factors, which certainly affect who would win a future game, but have nothing to do with past outcomes for which teams should be rewarded? So, when if see a team like USC at 23 and say: “but they would definitely beat Oregon State, who is ranked higher,” I say: yeah, but they didn’t beat Oregon State. They didn’t even play them, so I’m not going to pretend like I know who would win. Have you ever heard the argument: “they’re better than their record indicates”? For ranking purposes, it is the worst argument one could make, as that argument willfully disavows what actually happened on the field.
2. I include Conference Strength of Schedule in the rating system. The point of this is to reward conferences who play tougher non-conference schedules. However, for independents, I simply use their team SOS as a substitute to say: hey, if you are choosing to play tough opponents all year, then you should be rewarded for it.
So that brings me to Week 9. Notre Dame. Can you make the case that Alabama is better than Notre Dame? Yes! But man, has Notre Dame’s schedule and subsequent performance been impressive so far. I have no problem with where they are, knowing that Bama’s November schedule will push them up and Notre Dame’s won’t do too much for them. And as for Oregon: this is what you get for a) admitting Colorado into your conference, and b) playing a non-conference schedule of AK state, Fresno State, and Tennessee Tech. Although you’ll end up in the BCS championship game if you win out so I guess the joke’s on us.
Here’s where Notre Dame gets punished in my system: if you want to host a first round game, you have to win your conference. So, sorry guys. You don’t get to host a hypothetical playoff game in a hypothetical playoff structure in my rating system that over 4 people read each week.
Also, Ohio State is allowed to play in my playoffs. You can’t punish current players for something a coach did 3 years ago.
If the season ended today, AccuDrew would have the following playoff setup (rating in parentheses). As always, top 6 conference winners plus 2 next best teams get in, top 4 conference winners host, 4 away teams are seeded based on rating, regardless of conference status.
#8 vs. #1: Louisville (10) @ Alabama (2)
#7 vs. #2: Oregon State (7) @ Ohio State (3)
#6 vs. #3: Florida (4) @ Kansas State (5)
#5 vs #4: Notre Dame (1) @ Oregon (6)